[cobirds] [Migration Forecast] Thursday through Saturday Oct 26 through 28

Hey COBirders,

Back again for some good news migration forecast updates...

Thursday morning at 6am: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/26/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont)

That link above looks like we should see an interesting local push of migrants from northeast of us (Manitoba, ND, SD, NE) tomorrow morning.  Concentrations would be highest around the Palmer Divide.  Later in the day though, this changes to the northern Front Range overall with a strong convergence northwest of Cheyenne.  Here is that map, Thursday afternoon 2pm: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/26/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont)

Not long after that though, the migration pattern changes from out of the NE to out of the NW with a long trajectory from well into Canada.  

10pm Thursday evening: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/27/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont)

And from then on the winds are NW with a long trajectory from Canada, but there is no specific area of concentration of birds in CO, just general migration, but a long distance connection.  So this means get out there and see if you can find the concentrations of birds based on food sources/good habitat.

Then later into Friday, here comes the precipitation and along with it easterly winds which should drive the birds toward the Front Range.  Here is a representative Saturday look to show you generally what the birds will be working with in terms of migration.  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/28/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191

This day doesn't look great for migrants coming in from long distances, but does look good for redistribution of birds into the Front Range where hopefully you will be out looking.  Some of the birds that were deposited into the Eastern Plains of CO could get redistributed toward the Front Range for your viewing pleasure.

Good luck out there!

Bryan

Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

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