Tuesday, 20 October 2015

[cobirds] Another push of migrants coming

COBirders,
Not as "strong" a push as last time, but could see a slightly shorter migration pattern tonight into tomorrow morning.  Temps will drop a bunch overnight and give us a colder tomorrow.  The fun thing to look at though is the frontal location at different times tomorrow morning when birds will start to settle down for the morning feeding, or when you might have the opportunity to go birding.  Here are the two possible times for tomorrow morning:

If there is a green circle on both of these images when you load these sites, it is centered on Boulder, CO.  

6am:
At 6am, the front is forecasted to be around a line from John Martin Reservoir to Atlantic, IA.

9am:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/21/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.20,40,1009
At 9am, the front is forecasted to be around a line from just north of Springfield, CO to Atlantic, IA.

If the model data verifies or comes close to verifying, the places to bird for higher concentrations of birds would be out there in SE Colorado.  I do not expect this to be a strong push, but it is an opportunity for birds to get on the move, so I leave the possibility (albeit small) for "interesting" things  (rarities) aside from just some turnover of expected migrants.  It is hard to say whether this will be another strong push of Sandhill Cranes or not.  I am guessing this won't be as strong a push because the winds are a really different situation for them in this coming scenario.  

Hope you have a chance to get out and prove me right or wrong.  

Best of luck to the birds and you during this possible migration push.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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