Re: [cobirds] Will tomorrow still be a great morning to get out as predicted?

Just got back in (11:15) from an early night flight listening.  Had 53 night flight calls in 38 minutes.  That is WAY up from the normal, especially for a clear night (so far).  One data point for the data set.  Radar is lighting up a little as well if you want to use that.  Had 5 species (guesstimate) including Chipping Sparrow and Wilson's Warbler.

Good luck out there.  

Bryan

Bryan Guarente

Instructional Designer/Meteorologist

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

On Wed, Sep 10, 2014 at 9:09 PM, Bryan Guarente <bryan.guarente@gmail.com> wrote:

Great question!  So the first question to answer is, does it matter if it is raining or not?  If you are Ted Floyd out there in the middle of the night listening, maybe (it makes it harder to hear if it is raining).  But overall, I believe that it doesn't matter whether it is raining or not.  The winds are what matters and the clouds play an integral part in the night flight equation.  Now, as for the migration pattern, it still remains nearly the same with a minor deceleration of the entire system (depending on which computer model you believe).  This redistributes some of the bird movement, but not too much.  Here is the 6am Thursday map:

Clouds should increase throughout the night, and we still might see drizzle or rain in the morning, but it is less likely now.  The winds are making nice patterns now for more specific migration locations in the morning.  The two red arrows are giving us a clue to where the migration should be maximized.  The northern arrow is pointing to a corridor from Brighton through Fort Collins.  The southern arrow is pointing toward a corridor from Pueblo to La Junta.  Both of these are approximate.  I would say the more likely one to have more birds is the northern circulation because there is less need for the birds to turn toward the mountains and go back to the north.  However, one could still see birds locally converge on these spots, so it could still mean increased bird activity in those general areas.  There is also a convergence zone connecting the two circulations that will also play nicely for birds.  Here is a zoomed in map:

You can already see reflections of these circulations in the current surface observations:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=den&endDate=20140911&endTime=-1&duration=0

That is an auto-updating map that should take you to the "current" observations.  At the time of me writing this, there are circulations forming around Longmont/Loveland and Pueblo.  I would personally pinpoint the areas where these circulations are in the morning.  Keep your eyes on the surface observations (specifically the winds) and try to figure out where they are pointing, and that is where you should point as well.  "Put the wind at your back and start walking."  or "Go where the winds take you."

Let the list know how your ventures go tomorrow and how that relates to today or yesterday.

Let me know if there are any questions and thank you to those of you who have back-channel thanked me.  I appreciate the kudos and also like doing this for the community to see how it plays out.  We are all learning more about the interconnections.  

Good luck.

Bryan Guarente

Instructional Designer/Meteorologist

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

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