Re: [cobirds] Will tomorrow still be a great morning to get out as predicted?

COBirders,

Multiple people went birding today on my word.  Multiple people didn't see a change in fortune from previous days.  But others did.  What happened?  

You may remember what the computer model output looked like showing two distinct areas of convergence and circulation.  

Did those pan out this morning at 6am like predicted?  Here is what the surface winds looked like at that same time.  The previous map is derived from a forecast model (commonly used by the National Weather Service).  The following map is what was actually going on at 6am this morning.

The X and the blue line are my annotation.  The "X" is the center of the circulation.  The blue line is the axis of maximum convergence (i.e., where the bird convergence would be maximized).  Did anyone bird along or near the blue line?  I would love to hear if people birded north of the line and if people birded south of that line.  Both data points would be really useful.

So the forecast model was incorrect in localized placement of circulation centers and convergence.  This isn't uncommon.  And I was incorrect in believing the locations of these circulations.  Let us know what you may have seen around that blue line and that will help us solve some of the problems involved.  Let's keep brainstorming ways to pinpoint bird migration with weather patterns and test our hypotheses to find out what works best.  Without testing it and watching it "fail" at times, we won't be able to figure out the solutions.  I see some highlights of the migration reports being from near the blue line, but we need a larger sample size to help answer the questions.

Thanks for participating in this online forum and I hope to hear more reports.

Bryan Guarente

Instructional Designer/Meteorologist

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

On Thu, Sep 11, 2014 at 8:35 PM, Ted Floyd <tedfloyd57@hotmail.com> wrote:

Hello, Birders.

My experiences in Lafayette, eastern Boulder County, today, Thursday, Sept. 11, were more or less aligned with those reported by others. Basically, the birds around my local patch, Greenlee Preserve, seemed about the same as in recent days, with Orange-crowned and especially Wilson's warblers dominating. I heard a Northern Waterthrush at the preserve; it was in exactly the same location as where I found one on Saturday, Sept. 6, so I think it may have been the same individual.

Ironically, in light of the heavy night calling reported earlier on the night of Sept. 10-11, I heard *nothing* from 4am onward. It's the first time this year since before July 18 that I heard no night flight calls at all. The conditions sure seemed perfect, what with the light north wind and low cloud ceiling--not to mention what Bryan Guarente was hearing just ~10 miles north of me a few hours earlier. The equations of Einstein's theory of general relativity are easy compared to predicting migration!

I applaud Bryan for encouraging us to get out there and try to figure out what's going on with weather and migration.

Oh, and I'll be out there again in a few hours... :-)

Ted Floyd

Lafayette, Boulder County, Colorado

On Thursday, September 11, 2014 1:28:42 PM UTC-6, Nick Komar wrote:

In answer to Bryan's request for reports from the field, visits to several locations in Fort Collins/Wellington area of north-central Colorado (eastern Larimer County) both yesterday and today suggest that there was very little turnover in birds present. Most of the birding both mornings was at Cobb Lake SWA in Wellington. Very birdy, but essentially the same birds both mornings.

Bryan, did the expected weather pattern change? Or does your prediction model need tweaking?

Nick Komar

Fort Collins CO

On Sep 10, 2014, at 9:09 PM, Bryan Guarente ...[snip]...

Let the list know how your ventures go tomorrow and how that relates to today or yesterday.

Bryan Guarente

Instructional Designer/Meteorologist

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

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