CoBirders,
If I haven't sent the birds your way yet, know that I am working on it... give me a chance. ;)
Saturday now has a small opening in the overnight hours from midnight through 9am where migrants could get into the southeastern portions of CO on some nicer southerly winds (FROM the south). A probable convergence area in an arc from Colorado City, through Pueblo, Rocky Ford, Las Animas, and curving down toward Two Buttes Reservoir (north of Springfield) could see some areas of slightly farther afield migrants coming in. Expect though that this prediction could be off by 10-40km in a north-south direction (are you listening in Lamar?).
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/25/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.65,37.49,3000/loc=-103.473,37.869 (Green circle is on Rocky Ford for reference)
The Rocky Ford location I have marked on the winds above is right along an area of convergence that you can see somewhat clearly in the streamlines (those moving wind lines). Right over Rocky Ford (only an example location on the convergence zone... could replace Rocky Ford with any of the other names listed), you can see that the winds are converging (light winds from the north and stronger winds from the south combining over that area). This area of convergence is one of the things I look for in determining where migrants might end converge due to weather patterns.
I'll post again about a Sunday forecast. Things are changing a little bit, and I'll keep you posted on it.
Best of luck if you get out there. Prove me right or wrong. I love datapoints of all varieties.
Thanks for all the continued support and messages.
Bryan
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO
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