COBirders,
I want to start by thanking everyone for the motivation to keep these going. The positive feedback has been astounding and I appreciate it greatly. I also want to thank those of you who have been reporting the common birds and first of season birds. They are the easier birds to find and help us gain a better understanding of the impacts of the weather on migrants. The day-to-day movement of birds (not just rarities) is great data to play with. Patrick's report of Chipping Sparrows in his urban Denver yard is a great little bit of excitement for him, and also a really nice example of the forecasts working out. Glad to also see the excitement of getting a new yard bird in COVID times. Good for you Patrick!
Back to the weather: We are in a pattern in the low-level and mid-level winds where we should expect migrants to stay put at good food sources for the next few days until Sunday (a ways off, so that forecast could change). Think like Dave Leatherman to find the good bird spots. Find the food, find the birds.
Winds are either out of the north or northwest holding off the northward progress of migrants. To be more birder-positive about it, the next few days should hold the same birds you have been seeing, or if you need to go slightly farther afield to get those other local birds, you have some opportunity. Thinking about Yellow-throated Vireos.
On Sunday, expect conditions to look a lot like what we saw on Tuesday (this is a farther out forecast, so take it with more grains of salt). Winds all day long passing straight through Colorado with no solid stopping point. Expect migrant turnover for most of that day.
9am Sunday winds (example of what to expect; green circle is Boulder [for reference]):
Note the southerly winds are better later in the day in eastern Colorado for migrants, but still just pass-through. Expect turnover to be high. Maybe that means come back to the same spot a few times on that day if you are passing by again. On Tuesday of this week, at Lagerman Reservoir outside of Longmont, there were Long-billed Curlews, then not, then Dunlins, then not, and multiple varying sandpiper species throughout the day. This is part of what I mean by migrant turnover.
If you have any questions, let me know. I am happy to answer them.
May the birds you want to see stick around for a while. Get out there and prove me right or wrong. More data is better. Thanks again for the supportive emails.
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO
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