COBirders,
Looks like tomorrow should be a good day for migrational turnover. Expect that birds from farther south will have a chance to migrate through the area on stronger southerly winds (FROM the south) originating from OK/TX. Unfortunately, there isn't a strong convergence zone that would help condense the birds into certain locations. You can expect convergence of birds nearer the foothills than farther east as the mountains act as a natural convergence area when southeast winds are dominant. This doesn't preclude the fact that good habitat attracts birds better than bad habitat. So it can always be worthwhile to check your patch multiple times on a day like tomorrow (4/21)
Yesterday (4/19) and today (4/20), the winds aloft have been very weak promoting more soaring-bird migration but still allowing direct flight migrations as well with less wind support to cover ground. Tonight and into most of tomorrow (4/21), expect the winds to be stronger aloft and from the south for most of the day making for a stronger possibility of turnover of birds.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.00,40,1897/loc=-105.00,40 (The green circle is on Boulder for reference only)
I hope you can get a chance to get out (I know it is a work-day) for at least a walk in your local patch. You should have a nice opportunity for some new birds (First-Of-Year/First-Of-Season), but they may not stick around for long with continued south winds throughout the day into the night unless your patch has good habitat and food.
May the meteorology bless you tomorrow with birds. Remember positive and negative data are both useful to help us understand the overall meshing between bird migration and weather patterns, so let us know what happens for you tomorrow. Best of luck.
Bryan
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO
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