I wanted to add my two-cents worth on this interesting conversation. There are a few points that I think previous respondents have not addressed. One is that migration is an incredibly complex phenomenon, and though a great deal of research has gone into understanding it, no one can claim to know exactly what prompts individual birds to get up and go. Birding experience and historical records can help you guess, but individual birds show up in odd places all the time. This may occur more and more with changes to habitat and climate, which are happening blisteringly fast. What we know about migration patterns in the recent past might not tell us much about what's going to happen in the near future. Birds do not have time to evolve in response to global climate change, and they may respond in unpredictable ways. Lastly, a response to the comment that "neotropical migrants have no way of knowing that conditions may be suitable on their breeding grounds when they are thousands of miles away." To this I say that we also have to consider the changes occurring on the wintering ground. I don't pretend to know how warming temperatures, shifting rain patterns, and a loss of habitat on the wintering ground will impact the migration habits of many of these birds, but we should not take a "temperate-centric" view on this. Birds don't just migrate to Colorado because it's a good place to breed; there are factors prompting them to leave their wintering ground as well.
-- Amber Carver
Littleton (Arapahoe Co.)
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