COBirders,
Overnight 5/19 into 5/20 morning:
Start with right now from the time of this writing (10pm Thursday night):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/20/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont, CO)
The migration chances right now are poor and they will get poorer for most of CO.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/20/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont, CO)
The winds in three of the four quadrants of CO have a northerly component (either NW, N, or NE) which is highly unconducive for migration.
The exception to the above rule is SW CO. For much of SW CO, the winds will be out of the SW (weak, but still having a southerly component). So expect some typical SW US migrants into SW CO.
5/20 noon:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/20/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green Circle is Pueblo, CO where the CFO convention is)
The chances are getting better for migrants to move in southern CO overall. The flavor should still be SW US migrants, not eastern migrants. The best convergence is into Canon City, CO approximately. So if you are one of the lucky ones going to Canon City on a field trip from the convention, keep your eyes peeled as migrants should be moving during the daytime hours.
5/20 evening:
Let the snow/precipitation begin! This is where the forecast gets more meteorologically interesting, but less so ornithologically-interesting.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/21/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo; color shading is precipitation amounts)
5/21 morning (best for birders, worst for birds):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo; color shading is precipitation amounts)
So the struggle will be real for a lot of birds out there, especially the insectivores and ground feeders. With wet snow falling as far south as Pueblo (0-2") and upwards of 18" of snow along the I-70 corridor, a LOT of birds will be searching for food anywhere that food is present. They will also likely be descending to lower elevations to find food. Desperate times are coming. If you find the food, you find the birds on this day. These are the storms that drive MASSIVE numbers of swallows from the mountain reservoirs down to the lower elevation reservoirs looking for insects. I don't believe this is the type of storm system that will bring Longspurs to the roadsides unless there are already Longspurs present. Keep your eyes on your feeders, keep your ears peeled for something different in the neighborhood. It is likely.
5/21 evening:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/22/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo)
And then we are all cut off again from migration. Birds that were around are staying put and searching for food. Keep your feeders full or find the food sources and you will find the birds. No particular place will be amazing unless there is an amazing food source.
5/22 morning:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo)
There will be movement overnight, unfortunately, it will be to move the birds that are present out of town. On the east slope, front range, and eastern plains, the winds turned to southerly, but not to the south of our location. So it is time for an exodus.
5/22 Noon:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/22/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo)
And it keeps opening up for birds to leave, but not be replaced.
5/22 Evening:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/23/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo)
The connection to Mexico is back. Finally we will be connected to Veracruz again and we should see some migrants from afar. But unfortunately, there isn't a long-term convergence point in CO where they will be obviously clustered. Overnight, the winds open up to more of a flow into WY and MT.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/23/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254 (Green circle is Pueblo)
So Monday will bring you some new birds on the eastern slope of CO.
Thanks,
Bryan
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO
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