COBirders,
I have been monitoring the winds since before the Mother's Day Weekend snowstorm on the web. It has been a great example of how to "stop" migration. The snowstorm trucked through Colorado with the low pressure center around the La Junta (approximated) then headed northeast. After that system swept through, the following pattern existed for the last approximately 6 days. It just kept digging farther south until the front crossed the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently this image is centered on Longmont, CO (where I live). To get your location to show up highlighted on the map, click the "Earth" button in the bottom right, then click on the "[(O)]" button (fifth line down from the top, sixth button on that line). That should help you orient yourself. If you need to zoom in or out, you can also do that with the scroll wheel of your mouse (if you have one). It might help for context to zoom out sometimes.
Notice the winds are butted right up against the Front Range. There is a small section of air that would be able to squeeze right up the Front Range to about... wait for it... Chatfield Reservoir. Imagine that... there were many reports of fallout. I am not looking to have a discussion of fallout and its many definitions, but would like to believe from the reports that there were TONS of birds. So whatever your definition of fallout, it would have been fun to get to Chatfield during and after this storm.
But what happened the next few days. There likely wasn't much large-scale bird movement. Watch the winds just slam down on Colorado from the north for a while.
Noon on the 12th: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704
Noon on the 13th:
Noon on the 14th:
and it just continued, until tonight (05/17/2014):
That image is for 9pm tonight. Where are all the winds pointing? Directly at the migration mecca (at least this year) of Colorado's Front Range. Don't believe these crazy maps from some random guy on CoBirds? Try this on for size: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FTG-N0Q-1-48
If you catch this image before it gets too late, there will be a nice set of thunderstorms coming down off the Cheyenne Ridge (Cheyenne, WY), then those break up and a few hours later the radar lights UP! See the big ring of green radar echoes? Those are likely bugs, bats, and birds. So get out there and start listening. The place to be right now is Colorado!
Unfortunately in the morning, We won't be so lucky though. The pattern is supposed to change to a more southerly flow throughout the night and most of the migration won't get concentrated in Colorado (no fronts or boundaries to stop bird migration). Here's 6am tomorrow morning (5/18):
I am going to go sit outside and count night flight calls with a glass of wine in a minute. Hoping to snag a few thrushes, maybe a sandpiper or two, and hopefully plenty of unknown bird calls. Let me know if you go out and listen and how it plays out. Birds might be high up because there isn't low clouds, but still might get high concentrations since the winds haven't been great for northward migration recently. There might be some low enough to hear. Good luck to you and happy birding.
Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO
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